Aug. 3, 2007 — Slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures convinced the Colorado State University hurricane-prediction team to slightly lower its late-May forecast on the total number of storms that will form this hurricane season, but they still expect a more active season than normal.
On Friday, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray dropped the total number of storms to 15. They believe eight of those will grow into hurricanes. Four should reach intense hurricane strength, with winds of 111 mph or more. In May, they put the numbers at 17, 9 and 5.
"Sea-surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic," Klotzbach said in a news release issued Friday.
The long-term average stands at 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
"We expect the Atlantic basin tropical-storm season will be active with activity that is about 160 percent of the long-term average," Gray said.
There is a higher-than-average probability of a hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, they said. They do not give specific numbers for the Caribbean, but said there was a 68 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline.
Gray and Klotzbach also issued hurricane forecasts for the individual months of August, September and a combined October-November prediction. The monthly forecasts use different parameters than the seasonal forecasts to predict storm activity within shorter time periods and aid with the seasonal predictions.
For August, the team expects three named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane for the Atlantic basin. For September, they predict five named storms, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes. For October-November, Klotzbach and Gray predict five named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane.
"Typically, the end of the Atlantic basin hurricane season is governed by rising values of vertical wind shear," Gray said. "Since we expect generally cool-to-weak La Nina conditions this year, the end of the Atlantic basin hurricane season will likely be extended this year."
The same factors that make individual months active or inactive are often not the same factors that can make the entire season active or inactive, Klotzbach said.
"We are continually improving our forecasts to provide people with specific monthly hurricane forecasts and specific landfall-probability forecasts," he said.
Now is the time to get ready, not when a storm is about to hit, said Steve Parris, acting V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency director.
"In the limited infrastructure of the Virgin Islands, it is quite important to take proactive steps," he said Friday.
Residents should have on hand a three-day supply of food as well as clothes and rain gear, he said. They should develop an emergency plan that covers all household members — including elderly and disabled relatives and pets.
"Of all the lessons learned from Katrina and Rita …," Parris said, referring to the large numbers of older people and pets who died in those two devastating 2005 storms.
Residents should evaluate their insurance polices to make sure they're adequate, he said. He urged hurricane novices not to panic should the territory get hit, but said they need to decide now where they'll ride out the storm.
"The bathroom is probably the safest place," he said.
So far this season, only two named storms have formed. Gray and Klotzbach excluded subtropical storm Andrea, which formed off the southeastern U.S. coastline on May 9 and was never classified as a tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center.
"The number of storms that formed during June and July isn't relevant to this newest forecast — we've lowered our forecast from our May predictions because of slightly less-favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic," Klotzbach said.
Updates are due out Sept. 4 and Oct. 2. They will include separate forecasts of September-only and October-November-only Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
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