A St. Croix woman allegedly ran her ex-boyfriend over with her car and then fled police. (Shutterstock image)
A St. Croix woman allegedly ran over her ex-boyfriend, the father of her child, and then attempted to evade arrest by speeding away from police, according to court records posted Friday.
Police investigating a 30-minute traffic backup in Christiansted May 16 found Saidah Harley’s white Acura, with the word Crawsis written on the windshield, blocking the road. She was quarreling with her ex-boyfriend about him retrieving his belongings from her apartment, according to court records.
Police agreed to help remove the items from her Golden Twin Apartments unit, according to court records. Officers gathered the items and brought them to the man who was washing a car in Christiansted. Once there, Harley allegedly launched into a verbal disturbance so profound that officers advised her to “refrain from making any unlawful contact with” the man.
Moments later, numerous callers to 911 reported Harley had hit the man with her car.
Police interviewed the bloodied man at Juan F. Luis Hospital. He said during an argument with Harley a few days earlier, he stuffed important documents in his backpack and left. He told police Harley was violent and abusive. He did not want to return to the apartment for the rest of his belongings, even though the property Harley had police bring to Christiansted was not everything he had left there, he said.
The victim said after police had brought the items from the apartment and left, Harley returned and started videotaping him, claiming he was stealing government water to wash a car.
Sensing trouble, the man said he put his backpack in a friend’s car and walked away toward the Bentix Supermarket. Soon after, Harley drove by, waving the backpack from her car window. She had children in the car, including a six-year-old boy in the front seat, he said.
While the man was crossing the street, Harley allegedly gunned the Acura and struck him. The impact was so severe that the man was flung up onto the windshield, a witness told police. A friend rushed over with a T-shirt to help stop the blood gushing from his face, according to court records.
“ … while he was sitting on the ground, Ms. Harley drove around a second time and watched him on the ground. He stated that it appeared that she drove by to make sure that he was dead,” police wrote in their report of the incident.
Police interviewed the two boys who had been in the car. A 10-year-old said the man had jumped on top of the vehicle and tried to “Hulk smash” the glass, resulting in flesh and blood on the broken windshield. The six-year-old said much the same.
The man whose car the victim had placed his backpack in said Harley had taken it from his vehicle without permission. While he was telling the victim this, Harley sped up and struck the man. Another eyewitness told police the same, according to court records.
“Based on the statements into this investigation, Ms. Harley was considered the primary aggressor to be placed under arrest,” police wrote.
But it was not that easy.
On Tuesday, police spotted the Crawsis Acura at the Budget Service Station and attempted to arrest Harley for attempted murder. She first offered to follow police to the station. When they insisted she needed to get into the police vehicle, she said she could not because she needed to pick up her daughter from daycare. When police insisted and an officer reached out for her arm, Harley allegedly wriggled away and locked herself in the Crawsis car.
Harley led police on a brief chase from the Budget Gas Station to where Queen Mary Highway intersects Orange Grove Road. There, according to court records, an officer relented and agreed to allow the woman to pick up her daughter before being escorted to the police station.
At the daycare, however, Harley pulled into the parking area but did not stop, instead whipping a U-turn and speeding out of the area. Police gave chase and were finally able to stop the Acura and put Harley in handcuffs at the Catherine’s Rest Bus Stop, according to court records.
“Ms. Harley later admitted to leaving the Budget Service Station after being properly advised of her detention. She was subsequently placed under arrest for interfering with an officer, firefighter, or first responder discharging his duty. Ms. Harley refused the booking process and requested to be taken to the Juan F. Luis Hospital for treatment. She was later admitted to the Juan F. Luis Hospital for medical attention. Bail was set at $500,” according to court records.
A St. Croix woman allegedly ran her ex-boyfriend over with her car and then fled police. (Shutterstock image)
A St. Croix woman allegedly ran over her ex-boyfriend, the father of her child, and then attempted to evade arrest by speeding away from police, according to court records posted Friday.
Police investigating a 30-minute traffic backup in Christiansted May 16 found Saidah Harley’s white Acura, with the word Crawsis written on the windshield, blocking the road. She was quarreling with her ex-boyfriend about him retrieving his belongings from her apartment, according to court records.
Police agreed to help remove the items from her Golden Twin Apartments unit, according to court records. Officers gathered the items and brought them to the man who was washing a car in Christiansted. Once there, Harley allegedly launched into a verbal disturbance so profound that officers advised her to “refrain from making any unlawful contact with” the man.
Moments later, numerous callers to 911 reported Harley had hit the man with her car.
Police interviewed the bloodied man at Juan F. Luis Hospital. He said during an argument with Harley a few days earlier, he stuffed important documents in his backpack and left. He told police Harley was violent and abusive. He did not want to return to the apartment for the rest of his belongings, even though the property Harley had police bring to Christiansted was not everything he had left there, he said.
The victim said after police had brought the items from the apartment and left, Harley returned and started videotaping him, claiming he was stealing government water to wash a car.
Sensing trouble, the man said he put his backpack in a friend’s car and walked away toward the Bentix Supermarket. Soon after, Harley drove by, waving the backpack from her car window. She had children in the car, including a six-year-old boy in the front seat, he said.
While the man was crossing the street, Harley allegedly gunned the Acura and struck him. The impact was so severe that the man was flung up onto the windshield, a witness told police. A friend rushed over with a T-shirt to help stop the blood gushing from his face, according to court records.
“ … while he was sitting on the ground, Ms. Harley drove around a second time and watched him on the ground. He stated that it appeared that she drove by to make sure that he was dead,” police wrote in their report of the incident.
Police interviewed the two boys who had been in the car. A 10-year-old said the man had jumped on top of the vehicle and tried to “Hulk smash” the glass, resulting in flesh and blood on the broken windshield. The six-year-old said much the same.
The man whose car the victim had placed his backpack in said Harley had taken it from his vehicle without permission. While he was telling the victim this, Harley sped up and struck the man. Another eyewitness told police the same, according to court records.
“Based on the statements into this investigation, Ms. Harley was considered the primary aggressor to be placed under arrest,” police wrote.
But it was not that easy.
On Tuesday, police spotted the Crawsis Acura at the Budget Service Station and attempted to arrest Harley for attempted murder. She first offered to follow police to the station. When they insisted she needed to get into the police vehicle, she said she could not because she needed to pick up her daughter from daycare. When police insisted and an officer reached out for her arm, Harley allegedly wriggled away and locked herself in the Crawsis car.
Harley led police on a brief chase from the Budget Gas Station to where Queen Mary Highway intersects Orange Grove Road. There, according to court records, an officer relented and agreed to allow the woman to pick up her daughter before being escorted to the police station.
At the daycare, however, Harley pulled into the parking area but did not stop, instead whipping a U-turn and speeding out of the area. Police gave chase and were finally able to stop the Acura and put Harley in handcuffs at the Catherine’s Rest Bus Stop, according to court records.
“Ms. Harley later admitted to leaving the Budget Service Station after being properly advised of her detention. She was subsequently placed under arrest for interfering with an officer, firefighter, or first responder discharging his duty. Ms. Harley refused the booking process and requested to be taken to the Juan F. Luis Hospital for treatment. She was later admitted to the Juan F. Luis Hospital for medical attention. Bail was set at $500,” according to court records.
On behalf of the people of the United States Virgin Islands, I extend deepest condolences to the family, friends, colleagues, and loved ones of Pedro “Pete” M. Encarnacion, whose life of service and commitment to our community leaves an enduring legacy throughout this territory.
American flag at half staff (file photo)
Together we mourn the loss of a devoted public servant, former senator, respected firefighter, administrator, mentor, musician, and community advocate whose life was defined by service to the people of St. Croix and the Virgin Islands.
As a firefighter, director of the Fire Service, senator in the 26th Legislature, St. Croix Administrator, coach, mentor, and musician, Pete brought the same steady presence to every role. He led without seeking recognition and gave of himself with humility and conviction.
Pete dedicated two decades of exemplary service to the Virgin Islands Fire Service, rising through the ranks from firefighter to fire marshal, arson investigator, chief, and ultimately director of the agency. Throughout his distinguished career, he earned widespread respect for his professionalism, fairness, leadership, and unwavering commitment to public safety.
Through his extensive knowledge of fire science, investigative expertise, and forward-thinking leadership, he helped modernize operations within the Virgin Islands Fire Service while emphasizing preparedness, accountability, and fire safety education, particularly for children and the elderly. Guided by a deep love for people and community, Pete devoted his life to making the Virgin Islands safer and stronger.
As Senator Encarnacion, he championed legislation and initiatives that improved the quality of life for the people of St. Croix, including efforts to strengthen emergency response systems and improve public infrastructure. In every position he held, Pete understood that public service was about people first, and his impact will continue to be felt for generations to come.
As a mark of respect and honor for the late Senator Pedro “Pete” M. Encarnacion, I hereby proclaim that all flags shall be flown at half-staff at Government House and upon all public buildings and grounds throughout the Territory on May 22, 2026, from sunrise to sunset.
Gilberto Santos Santiago, affectionately known as “Papo,” a beloved resident of St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, passed on May 12. He was born on Dec. 1, 1948, in Vieques, Puerto Rico.
Gilberto Santos Santiago
Gilberto was a devoted husband, loving father, proud grandfather, cherished great-grandfather, beloved brother, uncle, and dear friend to many. Known for his warm spirit, quick wit, and remarkable sense of humor, Papo had a special gift for making others laugh and bringing joy into every room he entered. His presence was one of strength, love, and laughter, and his memory will live on in the hearts of all who knew and loved him.
He was preceded in death by his beloved parents, Adela Santiago and Gilberto Santos.
He leaves to cherish his memory his devoted wife, Clara Elena Santos Cortes; his loving children, Clara Elena Santos, Yamara Marie Santos, Kari Anais Santos, Shari Elizabeth Santos, Aldemar Santos, and Omar Renee Santos. He also leaves behind his cherished grandchildren: Aldemar Santos Jr., Alijah Santos, Gabriel Victor Santos, Michael Malek Williams (Adopted), Sasha Elena Santos, Alena Kimberly Williams, Nathan Perez (Adopted), Omar Renee Santos Jr., and Kairo Mykai Williams; and his treasured great-grandson, Leonardo Santos. Gilberto is also survived by his loving sisters: Eneida Santos, Maria Elmida Santos, Noemi Santos, Carlotita Santos, Irma Santos, and Magali Malek Santos; his stepbrother, Isidro Rodriguez. He leaves fond memories with his beloved nieces: Sherina Feliciano Santos, Liza Feliciano Santos, Erica Flores, and Elisa Flores; nephews: Joseph S. Malek, James P. Malek, Allen Feliciano Santos, Eric Feliciano Santos, Williams J. Santos, Stephen J. Santos, and Alejandro Lopez Santos. He is further survived by his daughters-in-law, Denise Santos – Skov and Stacy Santos; son-in-law, Wilfred A. Williams; brothers-in-law, Alberto Feliciano, James Malek, and Williams Santos. He also leaves behind his special friends and extended family, the Rosado Family, Wilkinson Family, Perez Family, Saldana Family, Miller Family, Guerra Family, and Santiago Family, whose love, friendship, and support meant so much throughout his life. Along with many other relatives, dear friends, and all whose lives were touched by his kindness, humor, and love. Though he may be gone from our sight, his laughter, wisdom, and love will remain with us forever.
Funeral service will be held on May 28, at Iglesia Hermanos Unidos En Cristo. Viewing begins at9:30 am, with service at 10:30 am. Interment will be held at Kingshill Cemetery.
Funeral arrangements are entrusted to James Memorial Funeral Home, Inc.
Evan Rikhye, nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as a judge in the District Court of the Virgin Islands, was confirmed in a 52-47 vote of the U.S. Senate Wednesday that was split along party lines.
Evan Rikhye at his confirmation hearing for a V.I. District Court judgeship in March. (Screenshot from U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing)
Rikhye is currently the senior counsel for Walmart in Bentonville, Arkansas, and previously served as assistant United States Attorney on St. Croix from 2008 to 2011 and again from 2021 to 2024.
During his time in the territory he was involved in several high-profile prosecutions, including the Casino Control Commission fraud case against Violet Anne Golden and Stephanie Barnes, and the indictment of Davidson and Sasha Charlemagne in an alleged $4 million Housing and Urban Development fraud scheme.
Rikhye will fill the seat of Judge Wilma Lewis, who was nominated by former President Barack Obama in 2011, confirmed that same year and served as chief judge from 2013 until April 2021. Lewis assumed senior status last February, which is a form of semiretirement that allows judges to reduce their caseload by as much as 25 percent and creates a vacancy on the bench.
Federal district court judges are appointed for 10-year terms, or until they resign or are impeached, according to the United States Courts.
Rikhye was born in 1971, in Boston, Massachusetts and received his Bachelor of Arts degree in 1993 from American University School of International Service and his Juris Doctor from American University Washington College of Law in 2001, according to his biography on Wikipedia.
“Evan has distinguished himself as a Federal Prosecutor, Department of Justice Attorney, and Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Virgin Islands,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social media site, when he nominated Rikhye in February.
“He will make an even better Judge! Throughout his career, Evan has demonstrated his commitment to the Rule of Law, and will always defend Liberty and Justice for ALL. Congratulations Evan!” Trump wrote.
According to his written response to questions in April from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, including whether Trump lost the 2020 election, Rikhye responded, “As I stated during my confirmation hearing on March 25, 2026, there is a constitutional process for election of a President, which entails a vote by the electoral college and then certification by Congress. See U.S. Const. Art. II, § 1. President Biden was certified as the winner of the 2020 election, and he served a 4-year term.”
Asked whether he believed that January 6 Capitol rioters who were convicted of violent assaults on police officers should have been given full and unconditional pardons, he replied, “Under Article II of the Constitution, the President has plenary authority to issue pardons. See U.S. Const. Art. II, § 2, cl. 1. As a judicial nominee, I believe it would be inconsistent with the Code of Conduct for United States Judges and relevant ethical canons for me to offer an opinion on the manner in which the President exercises this plenary authority.”
In response to a variety of other questions, including whether federal judges that Trump disagrees with are “USA HATING,” “MONSTERS” and “SUFFER FROM AN IDEOLOGY THAT IS SICK, AND VERY DANGEROUS FOR OUR COUNTRY,” as the president has written on Truth Social, Rikhye had much the same answer: “As a judicial nominee, I believe it would be contrary to the Code of Conduct for United States Judges and relevant ethical canons for me to opine on the comments of an elected official on a matter of public controversy and debate.”
It was much the same during Rikhye’s confirmation hearing along with two fellow judicial nominees, with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) concluding, “The answers here are obviously canned, pre-rehearsed, Orwellian in their denial of reality, and are a subversion of this process. They are an insult to this committee, but they also fundamentally show a complete lack of independence, backbone, and impartiality, which are the fundamental requirements of a United States District Court judge or a judge on any panel.”
The date of Rikhye’s swearing-in has yet to be announced.
A St. Thomas man surrendered to police Wednesday in connection with a 2025 Frederiksted shooting that left a woman wounded and led to multiple attempted murder charges, according to the V.I. Police Department.
VIPD said ShotSpotter detected several gunshots fired on East Street in Frederiksted around 11:27 p.m. Aug. 16, 2025. Responding officers found an adult female suffering from multiple gunshot wounds to her back area. She was transported by ambulance to Juan F. Luis Hospital for treatment.
Police said the investigation later revealed that Kenny Rogers allegedly fired shots at two additional victims during the incident.
According to the police report, a Superior Court judge issued an arrest warrant for Rogers on May 5 with bail set at $100,000.
VIPD said Rogers surrendered Wednesday at the Wilbur H. Francis Command Police Station in the presence of his attorney. Rogers was charged with two counts of attempted murder in the first degree, two counts of assault in the first degree, two counts of assault in the third degree, and discharging or aiming a firearm.
Police said Rogers’ attorney secured his release through a Superior Court judge pending his advice of rights hearing.
A V.I. Superior Court judge has found the minor accused of killing Jordan “Dutty Heart” Jones competent to stand trial as an adult. (Shutterstock image)
The 16-year-old charged in the 2025 shooting death of Jordan “Dutty Heart” Jones is competent to stand trial, a V.I. Superior Court judge ruled this week.
Angelo Javier Carmona was 15 when police say he shot and killed Jones, 38, shortly after midday on the Christiansted boardwalk. Carmona was arrested hours later, and the V.I. Justice Department opted to try him as an adult. He faces charges of first-degree murder — which carries a mandatory sentence of life without parole — assault, endangerment and counts related to possession of a firearm.
Carmona was initially found partially or not competent by court-ordered psychological and psychiatric reports. Both reports, according to an order signed by Judge Venetia Harvey Velazquez Tuesday, “grounded their determination on his youth and inexperience” rather than mental illness or other impairment. The court ultimately found Carmona competent after receiving testimony from Dr. Robin Brannigan, a psychiatrist, and after speaking with Carmona directly during a recent hearing.
“Having considered the medical reports in this case, and having heard the competing testimony of Dr. Brannigan and the Defendant’s responses to the Court’s colloquy, the weight of evidence reflects that Defendant Carmona has sufficient present ability to consult with his lawyer with a reasonable degree of rational understanding and has a rational and factual understanding of the proceedings against him,” Velazquez wrote.
Velazquez wrote that the medical professionals’ reports do not support a finding of incompetency or restorative hospitalization, and any gaps in Carmona’s understanding of legal proceedings can be fixed through education. A status conference was scheduled for May 27.
Carmona’s attorney, Assistant Territorial Public Defender Dwayne Henry, also cited his client’s age as a reason to dismiss the first-degree murder charges, arguing that a juvenile defendant should not be subject to life in prison without parole. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a court must refuse to apply such sentences to juveniles, according to a motion he filed this month, but the Virgin Islands Code has no such provision.
“The Supreme Court of the United States has consistently ruled that juveniles are constitutionally different from adults for purposes of sentencing and therefore cannot be subjected to the harshest penalties without careful limitations,” he wrote.
The Virgin Islands Port Authority Board during its monthly board meeting. (Zoom meeting screenshot)
The Virgin Islands Port Authority Board met on Wednesday and ratified agreements related to the Randall “Doc” James Racetrack, extended the P3 Initiative Transition Agreement with Sky City VI, Inc., authorized a new diesel fuel supply contract for the St. Thomas-St. John district, approved a $44,000 change order for emergency operations and approved multiple property leases in the district.
The board ratified two previous poll votes. The first approved an agreement allowing the government of the Virgin Islands to use the Randall “Doc” James Racetrack property near the Henry E. Rohlsen Airport, and the second extended the P3 Initiative Transition Agreement with Sky City VI, Inc. through Dec. 31. Board member Celestino White Sr. questioned the nature of the ratification voting process, and said that members should not be tied into the finality of a poll vote occurring prior to a board meeting when limited information surrounding the matter is available.
“Poll vote, once taken, cannot be changed at [a] subsequent hearing. I say that to say that in reviewing the information from legal counsel,” said White. “Poll vote I thought was a preliminary thing, and more information is submitted, and you make a final decision. But it seems like you locked in it [a poll vote] with whatever little information you may have at the time, or how much information you have,” White said.
“In regards to the ratification process, once the deadline for the matter that has gone to poll, let’s say for reconsideration has passed, that being said, the ratification process happens at the next board meeting. So that’s what it means that members cannot change their votes during the ratification process,” responded general counsel Catherine Hendry, referencing Robert’s Rules of Order. “You would keep that same vote if the deadline has not passed,” she added, and said that “When it comes to this matter and the processes, once the motion for ratification has happened, they can look at other motions.”
Board members Willard John, Derek Gabriel, and Kevin Rodriguez approved the matter, while Jennifer Matarangas-King and White abstained.
Under the Property Committee, the board unanimously approved a new lease agreement with J. Benton Construction, LLC for warehouse space at the Gordon A. Finch Molasses Pier terminal in St. Croix. The two-year lease, with renewal options, will be used for storage of construction materials and operational equipment. The agreement includes annual rent and maintenance fees totaling $39,780, with 5% increases during renewal periods.
The board also unanimously approved an expanded lease with A&R Warehouse & Storage, LLC for an additional 17,000 square feet at Lindbergh Bay (Bourne Field) on St. Thomas. The space will be used for storage of goods, building materials, heavy equipment, and office operations under a lease running through 2032, with periodic rent increases.
Under the Projects and Operations Committee, the board authorized a contract with Right on Time Trucking to supply and deliver diesel fuel to VIPA facilities in the St. Thomas-St. John district through September 2028, with renewal options based on performance.
Additionally, the board unanimously approved Change Order No. 2 for the CEKA Air Alliance Interior Build-out project, authorizing up to $44,000 for Energy Efficient Builders, LLC to install and commission a trailer-mounted generator supporting VIPA’s temporary Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting station at the Cyril E. King Airport’s Air Alliance Building.
Relating to projects, after the executive director’s report, Gabriel asked, “Is the resurfacing project still expected to be completed by the end of the year,” regarding the King airport.
Preston Beyer, engineering director, responded that the “contractual period runs until February of 2027.” He added, “But the intent is that it will still be completed within the period of performance.”
The board also accepted the minutes from its March 18 meeting and approved reordering future agendas so action items are addressed before reports.
Board members Gordon Rhea and Leona Smith were absent. No further reports were given or an executive session held.
A St. Thomas man was arrested Wednesday in connection with the recovery of a stolen vehicle that had been tracked through a GPS system, the V.I. Police Department reported.
VIPD said utility company personnel reported on April 30 that one of their vehicles had been moved from where it had been parked. Authorities said the company was alerted through the vehicle’s GPS system.
Police said the GPS later showed the vehicle stationary in the Nadir Hill area around 12:30 a.m. April 30, where it was recovered.
According to the police report, investigators identified Burton Fahie as the suspect during the investigation. Police said Fahie was apprehended Wednesday in the area of First Bank on Veterans Drive and transported to the Criminal Investigation Bureau.
Fahie was charged with unauthorized use of a vehicle, possession of stolen property and damage to vehicle. Bail was set at $27,500. Unable to post bail, Fahie was turned over to the Bureau of Corrections pending an advice of rights hearing, police said.
NOAA is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing the likely development of El Niño, which can help to suppress tropical activity across the Atlantic basin. Still, officials warned that residents should not let a potentially quieter seasonal outlook change how they prepare.
NOAA Releases 2026 OutlookNOAA announced its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday morning during a news conference held at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, home to the agency’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The Source attended the briefing virtually, which included officials from agencies such as NOAA, the National Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
“NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season,” according to a press release from NOAA on Thursday.
“The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher,” the press release said. “Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 1-3 major hurricanes category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges,” NOAA reported.
“An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes,” the release added.
NOAA released the list of names for the 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone season, which begins June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., spoke at the event and noted the importance of hurricane season preparation, even during a potentially less-active year.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one storm,” said Jacobs. “We have had Category 5 hurricanes make landfall in the past during below-average seasons,” he warned.
Notably, Jacobs added that the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are anticipated to be above normal in terms of tropical activity.
El Niño Expected to Limit Atlantic Cyclones
NOAA officials said a developing El Niño pattern is one of the primary factors behind the below-normal Atlantic forecast. During the briefing, Jacobs said there is a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season and an 80% chance that the El Niño will become moderate to strong.
A NOAA Climate.gov graphic explains the typical influence of El Niño, which can increase wind shear across the Atlantic and limit hurricane development while favoring more tropical activity in the Pacific. (Photo courtesy NOAA)According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Scientists call the two opposing climate patterns of El Niño and La Niña the ‛El Niño-Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO) cycle. El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies.” An ENSO-neutral phase typically occurs between phases of a La Niña or an El Niño event.
El Niño, which involves a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, usually helps to increase wind shear — a change in wind direction and velocity with height in the atmosphere. In the Atlantic Ocean, the increase in wind shear from El Niño helps to rip apart storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification. This is the opposite of a La Niña cycle, when the ocean waters across the equatorial Pacific cool significantly. During La Niña, wind shear typically decreases in the Atlantic, and a reduction in wind shear can favor cyclone development.
Officials Urge Early Preparation
Despite the below-normal Atlantic outlook, nothing with the weather is guaranteed. Ken Graham, director of the NWS, repeatedly stressed that seasonal predictions should not be treated as a reason to delay preparations.
NOAA encourages residents to prepare before hurricane season by developing an evacuation plan, assembling disaster supplies, reviewing insurance coverage, creating a communication plan, and strengthening homes. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
“Don’t let words like ‘below-average’ change the way you’re prepared,” Graham said. “The actions that you take today get you ready for the hurricane season.”
Graham also warned that rapidly intensifying storms can leave residents with far less time than they might expect. He noted that some of the strongest landfalling U.S. hurricanes were tropical storms only days before impact, underscoring the importance of preparing before a storm is approaching.
“There’s no such thing as ‘just’ a Tropical Storm, ‘just’ a Category 1, or ‘just’ a Cat 2,” Graham said, noting that residents should focus on a storm’s impacts, including flooding, storm surge, tornadoes, damaging winds, high surf and rip currents, rather than only its category.
He encouraged the public to stock up before a storm threatens, noting that now is the time to purchase nonperishable food, water, medicine, batteries and other supplies.
Graham also emphasized that access to medication, dialysis and other medical needs may be disrupted for a week or longer after a storm. He urged residents to prepare for extended power outages, include pets in emergency plans, and check on family members and neighbors who may need assistance.
New Forecasting Tools and Hurricane Technology
The briefing also highlighted technology NOAA uses to forecast tropical systems, including Hurricane Hunter aircraft, satellites, new forecasting products and tools, including artificial intelligence-based forecast models, and unmanned drones and ocean gliders.
Additionally, as the Source previously reported, the NHC is updating its forecast cone graphics this year.
“In 2026, the forecast cone will now include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. The additional information follows a successful experimental phase last year, which demonstrated that the improved forecast cone enabled inland communities to better understand and prepare for the danger posed by tropical cyclone winds,” according to NOAA.
NOAA explained that the new operational cone will now include all land-based tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The updated graphic will also use one shade for the full five-day cone and include a legend symbol for places where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are both in effect.
Dangers Continue After a Storm
FEMA officials also stressed that residents should listen to local authorities before, during, and after a storm. Disaster response begins locally, officials said, and residents should heed guidance from emergency managers in their own communities, including the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
NOAA urges residents to use caution after storms, when hazards can include flooding, downed power lines, heat, communication outages, and unsafe generator use. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
Officials cautioned that the danger does not end once a storm passes. Downed power lines, contaminated water, gas leaks, displaced wildlife, unsafe roads, chain saw injuries, and improper generator use can all create serious risks after a tropical system.
Graham specifically warned about generator safety, urging residents to operate generators outdoors and away from windows to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning.
FEMA officials also encouraged residents to think beyond their own households by checking on elderly relatives, neighbors and others in the community who may need assistance.
Tropical Weather Updates
Although the Atlantic remains quiet for now, there are some subtle hints of possible early-season tropical activity to monitor near the southeastern U.S. coast. A FOX Weather article reported that meteorologists are watching for possible tropical activity during the first two weeks of June, though forecasters stressed that it remains uncertain whether anything will form. If development does occur, “heavy rain will be the largest threat,” according to the article.
Additionally, the Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropics Hazards Outlook has highlighted an area in the Pacific for possible cyclonic development during the first week of June.
However, no tropical cyclones are expected in the Atlantic basin in the next seven days as of Thursday afternoon, according to the NHC.
For local residents across the U.S. Virgin Islands, the message from NOAA, the NWS, and FEMA was clear: a below-normal forecast does not mean there is no risk. It only takes one storm to make a season dangerous, and individuals across the islands are encouraged to begin preparing now.
Information regarding the weather across the USVI, including marine forecasts, is available from the NWS and NOAA.
The local forecast is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page, and a weekly video forecast is available. Additionally, residents and visitors can view weather alerts and disaster preparedness information from VITEMA.
