In the culture of the Virgin Islands, there is an old saying by the older people: “Whenever it rained on New Year’s Day, it would be a dry year.” Old people of yesterday lived by the signs and wonders of nature. They didn’t live by technological devices telling them about the weather. We are so modernized today that we have lost touch with nature. This year, when it comes to the weather, it is unusual. If you have been paying attention, we have been getting rain in months that are normally dry.

Scientists are telling us now that the El Nino conditions are likely to become La Nina conditions by this summer and fall, which are more favorable for an active hurricane season. According to the forecasts, “Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.”

These past winter months in the Virgin Islands, it was cool, not cold, where our temperature usually roams in the 60s with fog at times covering the lowlands of St. Croix, such as Estate Lower Love, East Concordia, and Upper and Lower Bethlehem. One can feel the change in the weather, where it becomes cooler at night, especially early in the mornings when the temperature might dip lower than normal. In the early mornings of the winter months, you will notice grass in your yard or along the roadside, or your vehicles and trees, are dripping with dew from the night temperatures.

If you noticed, these days it is hot already and we have not yet arrived at the summer months. As I conduct hikes throughout St. Croix, I see the signs of changing weather in animals and plant behavior. When you hear frogs making noise in the heat of the day, rain is about to fall somewhere on the island or before the end of the week, unless the weather changes again. Frogs are good indicators of rain because their skin senses moisture in the atmosphere. Again, if you notice, our dry months are becoming rainy months this year.

Like animals, plants are also an indicator of when rain going to fall. For some species of plants, their leaves turn over just before it rains, which is because of the humidity in the atmosphere. If you have not noticed, storms and rain are often preceded by or accompanied by humid air. The humidity can soften the leaves of trees, causing them to hang more limply on their branches. Some species of plant leaves also hang in a flipped position, which means the leaves turn upside down. Believe me, the university of nature is fascinating where you can learn so much about the environment and yourself.

I grew up listening to the older people saying that mangoes, avocados, and other fruits are an indicator of a storm approaching the islands. In 2017, the two Category 5 hurricanes Irma and Maria hit the Virgin Islands. That year, we had a bumper crop of mangoes and avocados. As old folks would say, “mangoes knocking down dog.” In other words, there was an abundance of mangoes on the trees. However, rain is a natural circle of life in the environment. There are so many factors that determine our weather conditions that play out in the natural world.

What I mean is, we can have a wet season for five or seven years straight. The same is true for droughts or hurricanes. Do you remember the story in the Bible when Joesph told Pharaoh King of Egypt that seven years of abundance would be followed by seven years of famine? It is all foretold by observing the natural environment. This traditional knowledge is no longer prevalent in our Virgin Islands culture.

I have historical records of rainfall or precipitation going back to the 1800s. It supports the knowledge of the older folks who knew the rain patterns of the islands going back for hundreds of years. The research on keeping records of rainfall has proven traditional knowledge can forecast the weather conditions of the Virgin Islands. Since 1852, rainfall records have been kept on St. Croix.

Traditional knowledge pointed out that the maximum rainfall occurs in May and from August to November; while the minimum rainfall occurs in February and March. This has been proven by collecting statistical data. In 1921, the lowest recorded annual rainfall was 29.10 inches, but less than 30 inches of rain was also recorded in 1872 and 1873. According to historical rainfall records, a severe drought occurred from 1871 to 1876, inclusive.

In that period, however, the annual rainfall was only once slightly above normal, and the average of those years was 34.94 inches, or 11.40 inches below normal. The historical records of rainfall data also show evidence of higher amounts. From 1886 to 1889, the average annual rainfall was 52.76 inches, or 6.42 inches above normal. And from 1895 to 1898, the average annual rainfall was 54.37 inches; and from 1931 to 1933, inclusive, the average annual rainfall was 64.94 inches, or 18.60 inches above normal. If we continue to get rain in months that are normally dry, then this year our annual rainfall might be above normal.

On the other hand, rainfall statistically and traditionally from August through November is higher than any other months of the year. Why is that? It is because we are in the high peak of hurricane season, which brings most of our rain for the year. Old-timers of a sugarcane island lived according to how the weather dictated their lives. For this reason, people of the old days knew when cane yield would be high or low, depending on the rainfall.

Also, the behaviors of solider crabs, chickens, ants and birds play a major role in determining whether we could be hit with a hurricane this year. Nothing is wrong with listening to the news to find out where storms are heading and if they will impact the Virgin Islands. At the same time, it is also beneficial to us humans if we pay attention to Mother Nature’s signs of changing weather.

— Olasee Davis is a bush professor who lectures and writes about the culture, history, ecology and environment of the Virgin Islands when he is not leading hiking tours of the wild places and spaces of St. Croix and beyond.