A report released by the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reported above-normal rainfall for the month of November, marking one of the wettest on record across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Separately, The Source spoke with Rafe Boulon, a St. John resident who has recorded daily rainfall measurements at Trunk Bay for over 40 years — without missing any dates.
The NWS November Climate and Hydrology Monthly Report for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands indicated a wet November across both U.S. territories.
“Considerable rainfall was observed across eastern Puerto Rico as several weather events unfolded during the first half of the month,” according to the NWS report. “The first event was a nearby cold front and an associated polar trough [an area of low pressure], followed by two tropical waves,” the report said.
“Eastern Puerto Rico received over 24 inches of rain in some spots, [while] the middle third of Puerto Rico and Saint Croix collected 6-9 inches [of precipitation],” the report explained.
“Vieques, Culebra, and the northern Virgin Islands observed 9-15 inches,” the report continued. “Western Puerto Rico saw the least amount of rain, but at least 3-6 [inches] fell during the month.”
The report noted that St. Thomas experienced its third wettest November on record, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, marked its 12th wettest November on record based on NWS information.
Rafe Boulon: St. John Weather Observer
Climate records are collected across both Puerto Rico and the USVI at weather stations located at the major airports of Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Cyril E. King Airport on St. Thomas and Henry Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix.
Additionally, numerous volunteers contribute weather information, such as weather observers associated with the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and the NWS Cooperative Observer Program (COOP).
Boulon is one of the individuals who dedicates time and effort observing weather and collecting information. Boulon’s weather data is utilized by weather and climate organizations, including the NWS, to compile reports like the agency’s Climate and Hydrology Monthly Report.
Boulon was born on St. Thomas in 1952 and was raised at Trunk Bay on St. John. He has spent his entire life on St. John and has meticulously kept records of rainfall received at Trunk Bay since the fall of 1983. Remarkably, he has not missed a date of measuring precipitation since he started tracking precipitation amounts. His interest in collecting rain data first began after Trunk Bay experienced a deluge of precipitation in the spring of 1983.
“What [initially sparked my interest] in [capturing] rain data was [the result of a storm] in April of 1983,” Boulon stated. “I [believe] we [received about] 19 inches of rain in 21 hours,” he said. “It was just an incredible amount of rain [in a] very short period of time,” Boulon continued.
“[My] neighbor [at the time] had a rain gauge, and he told me how much [rain was received], and I thought it would be nice to keep track of rain [myself],” Boulon explained. “[Therefore,] I ordered a gauge, and I started [tracking rainfall measurements] in September of 1983, and I’ve been [keeping rainfall data] daily ever since,” he said. (Since 1985, Boulon has been using a standard NWS rain gauge.)
Boulon acknowledged that there are days when his wife, Kimberly, may record the rain data while he is away from his home or out of the territory.
“Even when we are not [at the property or are off-island], we have house sitters who are under strict orders to check the rain gauge every day at about 6 p.m.,” Boulon noted.
Boulon obtained a Bachelor of Arts degree in Marine and Environmental Science from the College of the Virgin Islands in 1976 and a master’s degree in Biological Oceanography from the University of Puerto Rico in 1980. He also worked for several years in the field of climate sciences on St. John.
“I worked at the [Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources] Division of Fish and Wildlife from 1981 to1999 as Chief of Environmental Education and Endangered Species,” Boulon said. “[I then worked] for the Virgin Islands National Park and [the] Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument from 1999 to 2013 as Chief of Resource Management and Science.”
Tracking weather data has been an interest and a passion that he attributes in part to his great-grandfather, who was a meteorologist for many years.
“My great-grandfather, Frank Eugene Hartwell, was a meteorologist with the [United States] Weather Bureau,” Boulon revealed. [The U.S. Weather Bureau was established prior to the National Weather Service.] “[My great-grandfather] was stationed in Key West, Florida, Cienfuegos, Cuba, and [ultimately he] was stationed in Puerto Rico from 1909 to 1920, and later from 1930 to 1935,” Boulon said. He also noted that his great-grandfather wrote and self-published a book titled, “Forty Years of the Weather Bureau, The Transition Years.”
The figures that Boulon collects are sent to climate and weather organizations, including the NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the USDA, provided the following information about how Boulon’s weather data is utilized within the agency and how the information helps with compiling regularly released Drought Reports:
“From the standpoint of the U.S. Drought Monitor, [Boulon’s] 40 plus years of daily rainfall observations are used to verify and document St. John’s drought conditions, which have been officially tracked since June 2019.
“[Boulon’s] set of daily data dates back to late 1983 and allows scientists to easily calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index for various time periods, making for a relatively straightforward drought assessment. [The] data is supplemented with other rainfall reports, along with well (groundwater) data from the U.S. Geological Survey, satellite-derived vegetation health, and boots-on-the-ground reports.
“Although [the U.S. Virgin Islands] are wet now, there have been some serious droughts in recent years across St. John and other parts of the territory, as shown in the attachment or viewed here.
“From USDA’s standpoint, the Drought Monitor is used as a trigger for federal disaster assistance in a variety of ways, including the Livestock Forage Disaster Program for livestock producers.”
Emanuel Rodríguez-González, a meteorologist and Climate Services Lead at the NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico, also provided details about Boulon’s rain data and how the information is used within the NWS.
“[Boulon’s] data [which is weather information entered into the CoCoRaHS and COOP volunteer weather observer programs] is used to correct the data [obtained] from [NWS] radar precipitation estimates. Each month, we create a precipitation map for Puerto Rico and the USVI, and the [rain collection data obtained on the ground] helps us correct those estimates.
“We also calculate the climate [norms] for stations with a long enough data record. The climate [norms] are calculated for a 30-year-long period for each station.
“As the Climate Services Lead, I get multiple data requests from government, academia and the private sectors about precipitation data, which I share as long as I have a reliable station to do so.”
Looking Ahead
Due to the plentiful rain received recently, drought conditions are not forecast to affect the local islands over the coming months. However, there is an elevated chance that temperatures across the region may be above average.
“Based on the expected conditions, no drought is expected to develop in Puerto Rico in the upcoming three months,” the NWS Climate and Hydrology report said. (An updated Drought Report from the National Integrated Drought Information System will be released in January 2025.)
“According to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble [a forecast model system], there is a [greater than] 70 percent chance of observing above normal temperatures for the period of December 2024-January-February 2025, [and] the temperatures are forecast to be nearly 0.5-1 degrees Celsius ([which is equivalent to] 0.9-1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal,” the report continued.
While daily weather conditions across Puerto Rico and the USVI may be challenging to predict consistently and perfectly, it is safe to assume that rain data will be collected accurately each day at Trunk Bay thanks to Boulon’s diligence and passion for monitoring and sharing precipitation information over the last four decades.
“St John and the Virgin Islands are a part of me, [and] I’m part of them,” Boulon said. “And so, whatever I can do to help out in any way, that’s my goal – and just trying to leave this world a better place.”
