The National Weather Service (NWS) in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has noted that the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect a wet weather pattern this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also monitoring the southwestern Caribbean Sea for possible cyclonic development.
“Several features will combine to maintain this weather pattern through at least next weekend, [and] extremely hazardous marine and coastal conditions are also anticipated from Thursday through the weekend,” according to an update from the NWS on Monday. “Please continue to monitor the forecast as this event unfolds,” the NWS said.
The NWS said inclement weather conditions will begin on Tuesday across both U.S. territories, and the wet weather pattern will last “over the next four to seven days.”
“For Tuesday and Wednesday, a wet and unstable weather pattern is expected as a lingering front just north of the area sinks southward across the islands,” said the NWS, which defines a front as a boundary or transition zone between two air masses of different density, and usually of different temperature. “This will be driven by moderate to fresh northeasterly winds, and temperatures are expected to decrease by a few degrees in general across Puerto Rico and the northern USVI,” the NWS continued.
“The main weather impacts due to excessive rainfall will be urban and small stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and mudslides in areas of steep terrain,” the NWS warned.
Conditions will remain unsettled throughout the week. In addition to the possibility of rainfall and thunderstorms, the NWS expects hazardous seas with an elevated risk of rip currents, particularly during the second half of the week. Boaters and swimmers are advised to exercise caution.
Other weather impacts forecast to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands include excessive heat throughout the week. Staying hydrated and cool is essential to help avoid heat-related illnesses.
National Hurricane Center Monitoring Caribbean
Inclement weather may continue through the first week of November due to a tropical disturbance that could develop in the southwestern Caribbean. The NHC is closely monitoring an area with a medium chance of cyclonic development.
“A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days,” according to an update from the NHC on Monday. “Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea,” the NHC continued.
The NWS has said that the potential impacts of this system on the USVI and Puerto Rico remain unclear. If the disturbance eventually intensifies into a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour, it will be named Patty, the 16th named cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
“This area of low pressure now has a 40 percent chance of development in the next seven days. However, it is far [in the future of] the forecast, and we encourage people to stay informed with each update,” the NWS advised.
Stay Prepared During Hurricane Season
Hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, and the most recent system to directly affect the USVI this year was Tropical Storm Ernesto, which lashed the territory in August.
This year’s hurricane season has been record-breaking, including the explosive development of Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico at the beginning of October, the extremely high storm surge associated with Hurricane Helene across the southeastern USA in September, and destructive Hurricane Beryl, which rapidly intensified into a major hurricane and brought devastating impacts to portions of the Caribbean in July.
USVI residents and visitors are reminded that the weather forecast can change quickly, and it is essential to stay up to date with forecasts from the NHC. Hurricane preparedness tips are available from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Weather Updates
Weather forecast information, including severe weather alerts, is available from the VITEMA website and the National Weather Service.
The Source Weather Page also publishes a daily weather forecast and offers readers the opportunity to view weather forecast videos and disaster preparedness video segments.
